As the war with Russia grinds into its fourth year, Ukraine is making a powerful statement about its long-term resilience by signing a “historical” 10-year defense pact with France. This agreement, finalized by President Zelensky in Paris, is a clear signal that Kyiv is planning for a protracted conflict. The pact provides a stable, decade-long procurement pipeline, headlined by a preliminary deal for 100 Dassault Rafale jets.
This shift to long-term, 10-year framework agreements is a strategic necessity. The war’s brutal duration, combined with the instability of US support following a halt by the Trump administration, has forced Ukraine to seek out more reliable, long-term security guarantors. France, with this pact, and Sweden, with a recent 150-jet deal, have stepped in to fill that role.
The 10-year pact is a comprehensive security guarantee. It includes the 100 Rafale jets, eight “world-class” SAMP/T air defense systems, modern radars, and drones. This package will allow Ukraine to methodically modernize its military over the next decade to counter Russia’s evolving threats, particularly its escalated air war.
A key part of the 10-year plan is the inclusion of joint industrial projects. Zelensky announced that France and Ukraine will co-produce interceptor drones, a move to build up Kyiv’s domestic manufacturing capacity. This ensures that Ukraine’s defense industry grows stronger over the decade, rather than remaining solely dependent on foreign purchases.
Financing for this decade-long commitment will be drawn from European sources. The EU’s €150 billion SAFE loan fund and a G7 mechanism to use revenues from frozen Russian assets will provide the financial backbone. This stable funding allows Ukraine to plan its military modernization effectively as it braces for the war’s next phase.